Aerospace Engineer
Structural exposure score derived from 2 independent sources (OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" (human_rating_beta) + AIOE (Felten, Raj & Seamans)), each normalized against its own full reference population and combined by simple average, then converted to a percentile.
In real usage data, AI shows up in this job about as often as the average occupation: not high, not negligible.
Technical detail
Based on Microsoft's "Working with AI" study of real Copilot conversations mapped to O*NET tasks (arXiv 2507.07935): Aerospace Engineers scored 0.196 on AI applicability, within one standard deviation of the cross-occupation mean (0.159, stdev 0.098) across all 785 SOC codes studied — banded here as Medium real-world AI usage relative to other occupations.
Corroborating signal from the Anthropic Economic Index (Claude.ai/API conversations, a different product and userbase than the Microsoft data above): Aerospace Engineers shows measurable Claude usage tied to this occupation's tasks, though at low absolute volume — treat as directional confirmation, not a second precise score.
What a aerospace engineer actually does
Aerospace engineers design, build and test aircraft, spacecraft, satellites and missiles. O*NET's task list opens with formulating conceptual designs to meet customer requirements or environmental regulations, then evaluating those designs against engineering principles and quality standards, planning and running experimental, environmental or stress tests on models and prototypes, and diagnosing performance problems in malfunctioning or damaged products. Many also direct other engineering and technical staff.
The field splits into aeronautical engineering (aircraft flying within the atmosphere) and astronautical engineering (spacecraft, including cubesats and large satellites). Day to day, most of the work is computer-based: CAD in CATIA, SolidWorks or PTC Creo, modeling in MATLAB and Simulink, and requirements tracking in IBM DOORS, with test campaigns and hardware troubleshooting layered on top. O*NET job titles include flight controls engineer, structural analysis engineer, flight test engineer and avionics engineer.
BLS counts about 68,700 jobs in 2025. The largest employers are aerospace product and parts manufacturing (38%), engineering services (16%) and the federal government (15%). Defense-related programs can require a security clearance, and some clearance levels require US citizenship, which narrows who can fill a share of the openings.
Why it reads this way
Aerospace Engineer scores 12/100 on this site's structural exposure measure, which puts it in the Higher Risk band. That number is not a quirk. Concept studies, aerodynamic and structural analysis, requirements documents and test reports are computer-mediated, technical-language work, which is exactly what the OpenAI and AIOE pillars rate as exposed. The research verdict is "AI-resistant despite the paperwork" at Medium confidence, and the reasoning is narrower than for some other engineering jobs here.
The protection is not a personal license. Civil and environmental engineers are shielded by the Professional Engineer stamp, but BLS says licensure is not required for entry-level aerospace positions and a PE is optional, earned by experienced engineers who want to sign off projects. Aerospace is protected differently, through certification. Under 14 CFR 21.
33, the applicant must carry out the inspections and tests that show an aircraft, engine or propeller meets the airworthiness requirements, and must allow the FAA to run its own flight and ground tests. Under 14 CFR 183. 11, the FAA's Aircraft Certification Service may select designated engineering representatives from qualified applicants, and 14 CFR 183. 29 sets out their categories, such as structural, power plant, systems and equipment, and flight analyst.
They approve engineering data within limits prescribed by, and under the general supervision of, the Administrator.
AI is already in the workflow, and it is worth being specific about where. An Aerospace America feature of 1 October 2026 reports that GE Aerospace used generative AI to produce a preliminary hypersonic ramjet design in seconds, a task that normally takes months, and that GE uses it only in early-stage design.
Airbus announced a partnership with Mistral AI on 28 May 2026 whose named uses include AI-driven simulation to optimize parts and "ad-hoc support to engineers" through development, test and certification. NVIDIA reported in November 2025 that Northrop Grumman built an AI surrogate for nozzle simulation on Luminary Cloud's platform, intended to let engineers explore thousands of designs quickly. That last item is a stated expectation, not a measured result.
Regulators are keeping a human accountable. According to the same Aerospace America article, EASA requires human oversight and does not currently allow one AI tool to verify another's preliminary design, while the FAA treats AI as a tool within its existing framework and lets applicants propose their own means of compliance, subject to FAA acceptance. Both regulators favor starting with non-safety-critical uses.
The article also notes that regulators expect engineers to show how each part was designed, and a Rolls-Royce executive quoted there says current AI tools cannot meet that standard. Engineers still run the physical component and engine tests and build the compliance record.
What this does not show matters just as much. A certification wall protects the sign-off and the test campaign, not the number of analysts needed to prepare them. If simulation becomes ten times faster, a program may need fewer people doing routine analysis, and entry-level analyst work is the most plausible place for that to appear. We searched for a named case of aerospace engineers being cut because of AI and found none.
This is an absence of evidence, not proof of safety.
The demand data points the other way for now. BLS projects employment to grow from 68,700 in 2025 to 74,400 in 2035, a gain of 5,700 jobs and 8%, against 3% for all occupations, with about 3,800 openings a year. The median engineer earned $134,960 in May 2025. In practice the engineers best placed are those who can check an AI-generated result against physics, defend it to a regulator and run the test that proves it.
Skills this role draws on
We don't yet have task-by-task time-share data for this occupation, so we can't show which specific tasks carry the exposure score above. This is the real skill set instead.
Typical salary range (USD)
$86,700–$205,890
Median: $134,960/yr
Range source: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (10th percentile, median and 90th percentile for Aerospace Engineers, SOC 17-2011), via the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook and O*NET OnLine
Median source: BLS OEWS wage data for Aerospace Engineers (17-2011.00), May 2025 annual MEDIAN wage (50th percentile, $134,960) via O*NET OnLine and the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook; the figure is a median, not an arithmetic mean. min is the OEWS May 2025 10th percentile ($86,700) and max the 90th percentile ($205,890)
Related careers
Aerospace Engineer scores 12/100 (Medium structural confidence), so the numeric score reads as highly exposed and the verdict rests on category 2 and 3 evidence. Unlike civil or environmental engineering, no personal PE stamp applies: BLS says licensure is not required for entry-level work. The protection is certification accountability. 14 CFR 21.33 makes the applicant run the airworthiness inspections and tests and lets the FAA run its own, FAA designated engineering representatives approve engineering data under 14 CFR 183.29, and, according to Aerospace America, EASA requires human oversight of AI-prepared designs. Real AI use exists in early design and simulation (GE Aerospace, Airbus with Mistral AI, Northrop Grumman), and in each case we found it is described as assisting engineers, not replacing them. The wall protects sign-off and testing, not analyst headcount, and we found no documented AI-attributed job cuts. BLS projects 8% growth (2025-2035), as of 2026-10-28.
This is a researched judgment (checklist v1.2), not a statistical measurement — it sits alongside, not instead of, the structural exposure signal above. Next scheduled review: 2027-04-28.
Sources (9)
- https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/aerospace-engineers.htm
- https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/17-2011.00
- https://www.onetonline.org/link/localwages/17-2011.00
- https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/adding-ai-to-aircraft-design/
- https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-05-airbus-partners-with-mistral-ai-to-strengthen-the-use-of-artificial-intelligence-in-sovereign
- https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/apollo-open-models/
- https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/21.33
- https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/183.29
- https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/183.11
Data sources & methodology
Salary data: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (10th percentile, median and 90th percentile for Aerospace Engineers, SOC 17-2011), via the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook and O*NET OnLine. Min/max figures represent the 10th–90th percentile annual wage range across the United States. Median figure sourced separately: BLS OEWS wage data for Aerospace Engineers (17-2011.00), May 2025 annual MEDIAN wage (50th percentile, $134,960) via O*NET OnLine and the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook; the figure is a median, not an arithmetic mean. min is the OEWS May 2025 10th percentile ($86,700) and max the 90th percentile ($205,890).
Automation Risk Score: Based on O*NET occupational analysis (17-2011.00) evaluating task complexity, physical requirements, social intelligence, and environmental variability. Methodology based on research from Frey & Osborne (Oxford, 2017).
Growth projections: 8.3% (2025-2035), much faster than average, based on BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.