At risk / Chemist
SOC 19-2031.00

Chemist

VerdictHigher Risk — exposed on paper only
Signal 01 · structural exposure
69
/ 100

Structural exposure score derived from 2 independent sources (OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" (human_rating_beta) + AIOE (Felten, Raj & Seamans)), each normalized against its own full reference population and combined by simple average, then converted to a percentile.

Signal 02 · real-world AI usage
Medium
band, not a number

In real usage data, AI shows up in this job about as often as the average occupation: not high, not negligible.

Technical detail

Based on Microsoft's "Working with AI" study of real Copilot conversations mapped to O*NET tasks (arXiv 2507.07935): Chemists scored 0.238 on AI applicability, within one standard deviation of the cross-occupation mean (0.159, stdev 0.098) across all 785 SOC codes studied — banded here as Medium real-world AI usage relative to other occupations.

Corroborating signal from the Anthropic Economic Index (Claude.ai/API conversations, a different product and userbase than the Microsoft data above): Chemists shows measurable Claude usage tied to this occupation's tasks, with an observed-exposure value of 0.2614, higher than about 89% of the 756 occupations in that file — treat as directional confirmation, not a second precise score.

What this is not
Neither reading measures whether any single chemist has lost work to AI. That data does not exist anywhere yet — both signals describe tasks, not headcount. This page is not a prediction that this job disappears.
How we calculated this →

What a chemist actually does

Chemists perform qualitative and quantitative chemical analyses and experiments in laboratories, in support of quality or process control or the development of new products and knowledge, according to O*NET. This page covers O*NET 19-2031. 00 Chemists only; Materials Scientists (19-2032) are a separate occupation that BLS profiles on the same page but that is not assessed here.

The work runs from analyzing compounds with chromatography, spectroscopy, or spectrophotometry, to preparing test solutions and reagents, maintaining instruments and troubleshooting malfunctions, running quality control tests, and developing or improving formulas, processes, and analytical methods.

Chemists also write technical papers, reports, standards, and specifications, evaluate lab safety procedures, and direct technicians on test procedures. Job titles under this code include analytical chemist, QC chemist, forensic chemist, air quality chemist, product development chemist, and research chemist.

BLS counts about 84,900 chemists in 2025, with the largest shares in chemical manufacturing (33 percent of jobs), scientific research and development services (16 percent), and testing laboratories (11 percent), plus federal (6 percent) and state and local government (6 percent). Typical software includes Agilent ChemStation, Waters Empower, Minitab, and LabVIEW. A bachelor's degree is the usual entry requirement, and O*NET respondents report that 56 percent of positions require one, 10 percent a master's, and 30 percent a doctorate.

Why it reads this way

Chemist scores 31/100 on this site's structural exposure measure (Medium confidence, built from OpenAI's GPTs-are-GPTs task ratings and the AIOE index). A lower score means more of the job's task content overlaps with what current AI systems do well, and this reading sits in the Higher Risk band. The real-world usage signal is middling rather than extreme: Microsoft's Working with AI study scored Chemists 0. 238 on AI applicability against a cross-occupation mean of 0.

159, which this site bands as Medium. The tasks that drive the exposure are mostly on the desk side of the job: writing technical reports and specifications, compiling and analyzing test data, and developing analytical methods.

The bench side is harder to judge. O*NET's task list includes preparing test solutions and reagents, maintaining and troubleshooting instruments, and running quality control tests, but its ability ratings for Finger Dexterity and Arm-Hand Steadiness are moderate (50 out of 100 each), so physical skill is not the kind of bottleneck that alone protects a role.

Most respondents (80 percent) report wearing protective equipment every day, which says the work is hands-on and hazardous in places, though not that robots cannot do it. Pay is solid for now: BLS puts the May 2025 median at $91,240, with the lowest 10 percent earning under $58,460 and the highest 10 percent over $160,830.

Self-driving laboratories are the clearest sign that the bench work is being tackled. Berkeley Lab's A-Lab, built with researchers from Google DeepMind, used machine learning to plan and interpret experiments that robots performed, and Chemistry World reported in January 2024 that a published critique said it failed to make new materials, so its headline claims are disputed.

Lila Sciences, which raised a $235 million Series A in September 2025, says its first AI Science Factory has run hundreds of thousands of AI-driven experiments, though the coverage we read does not say how human scientists fit into that loop.

Timothy Noël of the University of Amsterdam, who works on the RoboChem platform, argues in a viewpoint in the May 2025 issue of Nature Chemical Engineering (reported by the University of Amsterdam in June 2025) that automation is about augmenting chemists rather than replacing them.

We searched for the opposite evidence, a documented case of employed chemists being replaced by AI, and found none in the sources we could read. Dow announced 4,500 job cuts in January 2026 and said it would increase the use of automation and AI across its operations, but the coverage does not say which roles are affected and does not mention laboratory or research staff.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 2,800 chemical-industry job cuts through October 2025, against 1,588 a year earlier, according to a Chemical Processing summary of its report; the AI-attributed cuts in that report are for all industries, not chemicals. That is cost pressure with AI in the story, not proof of chemists being displaced.

No licensing wall protects the role. BLS does not mention any licensing or certification requirement for chemists. Regulated labs do have an accountability rule: under 21 CFR 211. 194, drug-testing laboratory records must carry the initials or signature of the person who performed each test and of a second person who reviewed the records. A neighbouring rule, 21 CFR 211.

25, requires "an adequate number of qualified personnel" with suitable education, training, and experience, but it sets no number and names no degree or license. That makes a named person answerable, but neither rule sets a headcount or requires a chemist at the bench, so under the research checklist it counts as accountability evidence rather than a legal wall.

Demand is the counterweight. BLS projects chemist employment to grow from 84,900 to 90,300 between 2025 and 2035, which is 6. 4 percent or about 5,500 jobs, with scientific research and development services the fastest-growing of its largest employers (15. 9 percent) and pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing at 12. 2 percent, while federal government chemist jobs are projected to fall 5. 3 percent.

BLS attributes demand to innovations in research areas such as nanotechnology and biomaterials, and says chemists will be needed to develop improved products and processes such as new medicines and food safety methods. Its Employment paragraph does not mention automation or AI.

Growth does not move this verdict, but it means the evidence points to a changing job, with routine documentation and analysis most exposed and method development, instrument expertise, and regulated sign-off the parts that remain with people, as of 2026-10-28. This describes the occupation, not any one chemist's job.

Skills this role draws on

Chromatography and Spectroscopy AnalysisAnalytical Method DevelopmentQuality Control TestingLaboratory Instrument Maintenance and TroubleshootingReagent and Solution PreparationTechnical Report and Specification WritingLaboratory Safety EvaluationTest Data Analysis and Statistics
Pay & demand
$58,460–$160,830
10th–90th percentile, USD/year
Median: $91,240/yr
Demand
Medium
Growth outlook
Strong
Projected growth
6.4% (2025-2035), faster than average

Range source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook and OEWS, May 2025 (Chemists, SOC 19-2031); O*NET OnLine 19-2031.00
Median source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Chemists and Materials Scientists page, chemists row: May 2025 OEWS annual median wage ($91,240), also shown on O*NET OnLine for 19-2031.00; this is the median, not the mean (Annual Median Wage). Min is the BLS May 2025 10th percentile (lowest 10 percent earned less than $58,460) and max is the 90th percentile (highest 10 percent earned more than $160,830).

Safer, skill-adjacent careers

These aren't generic "consider retraining" suggestions. Each one shares real skill or task overlap with chemist work, and each one scores meaningfully higher on our structural exposure scale, with the reasoning shown below.

Related at-risk roles

Other roles with a similar exposure profile or a shared set of safer moves.

Research verdict
Assessed as of 2026-10-28
At risk

Chemist scores 31/100 (Medium structural confidence), and under the research checklist neither a legal wall nor a strong physical barrier holds it up: BLS lists no licensing requirement, O*NET rates Finger Dexterity and Arm-Hand Steadiness at a moderate 50 out of 100, and the 21 CFR 211.194 sign-off rule for drug-testing labs creates accountability for a named person without setting headcount. Self-driving laboratories such as Berkeley Lab's A-Lab and Lila Sciences' AI Science Factory are real, though A-Lab's discovery claims are disputed, and a search for documented replacement of employed chemists found none. BLS projects 6.4% growth through 2035, so read this as task exposure in documentation, data analysis, and routine testing alongside steady hiring, as of 2026-10-28.

Last updated: October 2026Source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook and OEWS, May 2025 (Chemists, SOC 19-2031); O*NET OnLine 19-2031.00

Data sources & methodology

Salary data: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook and OEWS, May 2025 (Chemists, SOC 19-2031); O*NET OnLine 19-2031.00. Median figure sourced separately: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Chemists and Materials Scientists page, chemists row: May 2025 OEWS annual median wage ($91,240), also shown on O*NET OnLine for 19-2031.00; this is the median, not the mean (Annual Median Wage). Min is the BLS May 2025 10th percentile (lowest 10 percent earned less than $58,460) and max is the 90th percentile (highest 10 percent earned more than $160,830)..

Task descriptions: Based on O*NET occupational analysis (19-2031.00).

Real-world AI usage band: Microsoft's "Working with AI" study of Bing Copilot conversations mapped to O*NET tasks (arXiv 2507.07935), and corroborating data from the Anthropic Economic Index.

Growth projections: 6.4% (2025-2035), faster than average, based on BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

Learn more about our methodology