At risk / Press Machine Operator
SOC 51-4031.00

Press Machine Operator

VerdictVery Safe
Signal 01 · structural exposure
12
/ 100

Structural exposure score derived from 2 independent sources (OpenAI "GPTs are GPTs" (human_rating_beta) + AIOE (Felten, Raj & Seamans)), each normalized against its own full reference population and combined by simple average, then converted to a percentile.

Signal 02 · real-world AI usage
Not yet available

We have not ingested real-world usage data for this occupation yet. We show a band only where genuine data exists, rather than estimate one.

What this is not
Neither reading measures whether any single press machine operator has lost work to AI. That data does not exist anywhere yet — both signals describe tasks, not headcount. This page is not a prediction that this job disappears.
How we calculated this →

What a press machine operator actually does

Press machine operators set up, run, and monitor machines that saw, cut, shear, slit, punch, crimp, notch, bend, or straighten sheet metal or plastic material into finished or semi-finished parts. Core tasks include reading work orders and blueprints to determine cutting or forming specifications, installing and adjusting machine fixtures and dies, measuring finished workpieces against tolerances, inspecting output for defects, and monitoring the machine during a production run to catch problems before they produce scrap.

Once a die or fixture is set up correctly, the job shifts toward watching the equipment run and stepping in when a part comes out wrong or the machine jams.

Most press machine operators work in metal fabrication, automotive parts, or plastics manufacturing plants running standardized, repeatable production. The role typically requires a high school diploma, with some employers requiring a postsecondary certificate, and training happens mostly on the job over a period ranging from a few days to about a year depending on the equipment's complexity.

Why it reads this way

Press Machine Operator scores 88/100 on this site's structural exposure measure, a high raw reading this site overrides downward for the same reason it already does for this industry's Welding Machine Operator: both structural pillars rate language-model task exposure and have no way to detect that this occupation's entire job is tending the exact kind of robotic equipment that displaces the manual monitoring task itself, a documented physical-automation blind spot.

Real, current, named automation confirms the risk directly. Robotic press-tending systems (Yaskawa Motoman's Robotic Press Tending Solutions among them) are already deployed commercially, and industry coverage describes automated systems now handling real-time quality checks, die changes, and part transfers, cutting cycle times to as little as 10-20 seconds.

Government and industry sources tie this occupation's real, current employment decline directly to "laborsaving machinery," not a vague industry-wide slowdown, while a related trend confirms the mechanism: industrial machinery mechanics and millwrights are projected to grow roughly 14% through 2035 specifically because more robots and automated lines need skilled human upkeep, the maintenance side of the same automation this occupation's operating side is losing ground to.

Skills this role draws on

Press/Cutting/Punching Machine SetupWork Order & Blueprint InterpretationDie & Fixture InstallationDimensional Inspection & Tolerance CheckingProduction Run Monitoring
Pay & demand
$35,760–$65,510
10th–90th percentile, USD/year
Average: $46,330/yr
Demand
Low
Growth outlook
Declining
Projected growth
Decline (-1% or lower, 2024-2034), ~14,400 projected openings driven by replacement needs rather than growing headcount (BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook / O*NET Job Outlook)

Range source: BLS OEWS wage data via O*NET OnLine (2025 release), SOC 51-4031.00 'Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic'
Average source: BLS OEWS wage data for Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic (51-4031.00) via O*NET OnLine, 2025 wage data (Annual Median Wage)

Research verdict
Assessed as of 2026-09-21
At risk

Press Machine Operator scores 88/100 (Medium structural confidence, both pillars cover this code), a high raw reading overridden downward for the same documented reason as this industry's Welding Machine Operator: both pillars rate language-model task exposure and can't detect that this occupation's entire function is tending the robotic equipment that displaces the manual monitoring task itself. Real, named automation confirms it: Yaskawa Motoman's Robotic Press Tending Solutions are already commercially deployed, and industry coverage describes automated systems handling real-time quality checks, die changes, and part transfers, cutting cycle times to 10-20 seconds. Government and industry sources tie this occupation's real employment decline directly to laborsaving machinery, not a generic slowdown, while industrial machinery mechanics and millwrights are separately projected to grow ~14% through 2035 specifically to maintain the same automated lines, the flip side of this occupation's exposure, as of 2026-09-21.

Last updated: September 2026Source: BLS OEWS wage data via O*NET OnLine (2025 release), SOC 51-4031.00 'Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic'

Data sources & methodology

Salary data: BLS OEWS wage data via O*NET OnLine (2025 release), SOC 51-4031.00 'Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic'. Average figure sourced separately: BLS OEWS wage data for Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic (51-4031.00) via O*NET OnLine, 2025 wage data (Annual Median Wage).

Task descriptions: Based on O*NET occupational analysis (51-4031.00).

Real-world AI usage band: Microsoft's "Working with AI" study of Bing Copilot conversations mapped to O*NET tasks (arXiv 2507.07935), and corroborating data from the Anthropic Economic Index.

Growth projections: Decline (-1% or lower, 2024-2034), ~14,400 projected openings driven by replacement needs rather than growing headcount (BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook / O*NET Job Outlook), based on BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

Learn more about our methodology