Locksmith
As of August 2026, no robotic or AI system installs locks, opens safes, rekeys a property, or shows up for an emergency lockout call — the tasks that make up most of a working locksmith's paid hours.
In real usage data, AI shows up in this job less often than in most occupations.
Technical detail
Based on Microsoft's "Working with AI" study of real Copilot conversations mapped to O*NET tasks (arXiv 2507.07935): Locksmiths and Safe Repairers scored 0.043 on AI applicability, notably below the cross-occupation mean (0.159, stdev 0.098) across all 785 SOC codes studied — banded here as Low real-world AI usage relative to other occupations.
What a locksmith actually does
Locksmiths install, repair, and open locks, and work with security hardware for residential, commercial, and automotive customers. The work involves responding to emergency lockout calls and gaining entry without damaging the door or lock, rekeying cylinders when tenants move out or keys are lost, designing master key systems for apartment buildings and offices so managers can access multiple units with one key, repairing or replacing worn mechanical locks, opening and servicing safes, and duplicating standard and high-security keys.
Modern locksmithing increasingly involves electronic security—installing key card readers, smart locks, and access control panels that integrate with a building's broader security system. Emergency work requires driving a mobile van stocked with tools, blanks, and lock hardware, arriving quickly, and solving the problem on-site while a customer waits outside. Commercial jobs often start with a security assessment, recommending lock grades and access systems suited to a business's risk level and traffic patterns.
Automotive locksmiths program transponder and fob-based keys for vehicles with sophisticated anti-theft electronics. Because the trade centers on defeating security devices, states that regulate locksmiths typically require a background check and individual registration, not just a business license.
Why it reads this way
As of August 2026, no robotic or AI system installs locks, opens safes, rekeys a property, or shows up for an emergency lockout call — the tasks that make up most of a working locksmith's paid hours.
The clearest automation to point to is unattended key-cutting kiosks: KeyMe alone has deployed over 8,000 AI-powered kiosks nationwide (Walmart, Sam's Club, Kroger, Rural King, and more), cut over 47 million keys as of March 2026, and recently added car-key and transponder duplication shipped by mail.
That's real and growing, and it does replace the specific task of cutting a spare key — but plain key duplication had already largely moved to hardware-store counters before kiosks existed, so it's a narrow slice of what a professional locksmith actually gets paid for. Licensing offers real but patchy protection: only about 13-15 states regulate the trade, though where they do (California, New Jersey, for instance) every individual technician must be personally registered, not just a company's named qualifier.
Worth knowing: BLS actually projects this occupation's employment to shrink slightly through 2034, driven more by smart-lock adoption cutting lockout calls than by AI doing the work itself.
Skills this role draws on
We don't yet have task-by-task time-share data for this occupation, so we can't show which specific tasks carry the exposure score above. This is the real skill set instead.
Typical salary range (USD)
$31,000–$73,000
Average: $55,470/yr
Range source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics, May 2024
Average source: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (Annual Mean Wage)
Related careers
Head-to-head comparisons
Locksmith is assessed as Safe as of August 2026, with the occupation's structuralScore of 83 reflecting low language/cognitive-task exposure. Our mandatory section 2a robotics-materiality check found real, commercial-scale, growing automation in this space -- KeyMe alone operates over 8,000 AI-powered key-cutting kiosks nationwide as of March 2026, expanding into Walmart, Sam's Club and other major retailers, and recently added car-key/transponder duplication -- but it displaces only the narrow, already-commoditized task of duplicating a physical key, not the emergency-lockout, rekeying, lock installation/repair, safe, or commercial-security work that makes up most of a locksmith's paid hours; no commercial robotic system performs any of those core tasks. Licensing is a genuine but geographically partial protection: only about 13-15 states regulate the trade, and where they do (e.g. California, New Jersey), every individual technician must be personally registered rather than a single company-level qualifier covering unlicensed staff. Confidence is set at Medium rather than High because BLS/O*NET data show this occupation's employment is actually projected to decline roughly 8% through 2034 -- more plausibly driven by smart-lock/keyless-entry adoption reducing lockout and rekey calls than by AI performing the work -- a real complicating signal against the Safe verdict on automation grounds specifically, even though it isn't rubric-determining on its own. Note: current BLS/O*NET data suggests employment is projected to decline (approximately -8%, 2024-2034), a significant discrepancy from the growthRate currently stored on this page (2%, and possibly sign-flipped); flagged for a data-accuracy follow-up, not corrected as part of this verdict.
This is a researched judgment (checklist v1.2), not a statistical measurement — it sits alongside, not instead of, the structural exposure signal above. Next scheduled review: 2027-02-09.
Sources (15)
- https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/49-9094.00
- https://www.onetonline.org/link/details/49-9094.00
- https://www.mynextmove.org/profile/summary/49-9094.00
- https://datausa.io/profile/soc/locksmiths-safe-repairers
- https://tradecareerpath.com/trades/locksmith/
- https://www.bsis.ca.gov/industries/locksmith.shtml
- https://law.cornell.edu/regulations/texas/37-Tex-Admin-Code-SS-35-123
- https://key.me/article/keyme-locksmiths-deploys-8000th-ai-powered-kiosk
- https://www.kioskmarketplace.com/news/keyme-passes-8k-deployments/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/keyme-locksmiths-leading-key-duplication-130000048.html
- https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/keyme-locksmiths-and-sams-club-partner-to-modernize-car-key-duplication-at-scale-302767072.html
- https://www.kioskmarketplace.com/news/keyme-kiosks-copy-car-key-fobs-and-save-digital-copies-in-the-cloud/
- https://ipvm.com/reports/keys-from-a-vending-machine
- https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/smart-lock-market
- https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/employment/locksmiths/4833
Data sources & methodology
Salary data: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics, May 2024. Min/max figures represent the 10th–90th percentile annual wage range across the United States. Average figure sourced separately: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (Annual Mean Wage).
Automation Risk Score: Based on O*NET occupational analysis (49-9094.00) evaluating task complexity, physical requirements, social intelligence, and environmental variability. Methodology based on research from Frey & Osborne (Oxford, 2017).
Growth projections: -8% (2024-2034), based on BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.